Free Bets Here: Aston Villa v Newcastle

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP : ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE UNITED 07/12/02

ASTON VILLA LAST SIX MATCHES

26-Oct-02 A Manchester United D 1-1
Mellberg 35

12 03-Nov-02 A Blackburn Rovers D 0-0

09-Nov-02 H Fulham W 3-1
Angel 20; Allback 66; Leonhardsen 83

16-Nov-02 A West Bromwich Albion D 0-0 

 

23-Nov-02 H West Ham United W 4-1

Hendrie  29; Leonhardsen 59; Dublin 72; Vassell 80

30-Nov-02 A Arsenal L 1-3
Hitzlsperger 64

NEWCASTLE LAST SIX MATCHES

26-Oct-02 H Charlton Athletic W 2-1
Griffin 37; Robert 59

04-Nov-02 H Middlesbrough W 2-0
Ameobi 20; Caldwell 87

09-Nov-02 A Arsenal L 0-1

16-Nov-02 H Southampton W 2-1
Ameobi 41; Hughes 54

23-Nov-02 A Manchester United L 3-5
Bernard 35; Shearer 52; Bellamy 75

01-Dec-02 H Everton W 2-1
Shearer 86; Bellamy 89

Aston Villa come into this game on the back of a recent good run, destroying Preston midweek 5-0, while Newcastle had a good win at home to Everton last week, and with the news that striker Craig Bellamy on the verge of signing a new contract.

Aston Villa, despite a slow start, are starting to find some form, and have backed up their excelllent defensive record by starting to find the back of the net. They have won their last two home games, and have taken an impressive 13 out of 18 points at home. They have only conceded 6 goals at home and are now scoring freely, scoring 5 midweek, with strikers Darius Vassell and Dion Dublin starting to get a good partnership going. In fact, they have scored 12 goals in the last 3 home matches. Newcastle are flying high in the league, and are 6th. This form is misleading however.

They have won thier last 6 home matches, taking a maximum 18 points out of 18, while they have only taken 4 out of 18 points away this season and have lost their last three away. Newcastle are simply terrbible away from St James's. The defence is always shakty, and with Villa now finding the net, they have the firepower to score. Newcastle haven't kept a clean sheet in 4 games and the odds of 11/8 look extremely appealing. A win for Villa will see them close in on a UEFA spot, and I think they can take advantage of a Newcastle side preoccupied by thoughts of the Champions league. Home win. Medium stake.

There are three laws of mathematics that govern a large part of betting - probability, averages and big numbers - and by far and away the most important of these are the laws of probability. Every price that we see offered starts its life as an estimation of the probability or chance of whatever the outcome of that odd is. Thus, even money represents a 50% chance, 6-4 a 40% chance, 10-1 is 9% and soon. Calculating the probability or chance from an odd is a simple affair and is done by dividing the last figure in the odds by the sum of both. For example, 6-4 becomes 40%. By adding 6+4= 10 and by dividing 4 by this answer, one arrives at 0.4. Multiplying this figure by 100 gives a percentage value of 40%. Similarly, 2-1 becomes 33% by 1I(2+1)=0.33.

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