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Big Brother
I have previously stated that Anthony has a core support
level of 26% and currently attracts 6-9% transient support,
making a support range of 32-35%. This support level has
remained constant (+/- 2%) for 2 weeks now. Anthony is not
gaining any new admirers, for there has been little
motivation for the public to actually cause a shift in his
favour. His odds remain constant (and far too low) because
the poll evidence prevents his price crashing to 1.2.
Increasingly preposterous fan claims that he is a runaway
winner are equally delusional as Anthony's own opinion of
himself.
Kinga, not exactly the model contestant, attracted an
enormous surge of support on her entry into the house,
simply because many watchers are searching for a winner, ANY
winner. Eugene has a cult following that is truly
increasing, for exactly the same reason. The reason is that
Anthony is not a "natural" winner of Big Brother and the GBP
are choosing to search around wildly for an alternative.
Insomuch that many say "Anthony..best of a bad bunch", there
are many who will say "Anthony..an undeserved winner". There
is no believable evidence, just mere guesstimations, that
Ants support will increase beyond the 33% level, but there
are many who fear that he has the capability of losing some
of his transient support through unconsidered actions or
that those nearest to him in the polls will be handed a task
winning ticket.
It is clearly time to plant ones feet firmly in reality and
to accept that Anthony has support, but that claims of his
foregone win are grossly exaggerated.
Anthony does not have a high negative support level, unlike
Makosi, Craig and Derek, but with the switch to positive
voting in few days time, negative opinion counts for
nothing. We have reached the stage of Big Brother where the
only consideration is dedicated and positive fan support.
The early indications of polls are now more relevant than
ever and these signals do indeed demonstrate a small lead
for Anthony. There are clear indications that Derek is
suffering a slight setback with Eugene making steady
progress, but trailing badly. Makosi has been revived and
the new look combined with a resurgence of her once lost
popularity shows her regaining the “deserved winner” vote.
In reality, we may end the week with a 4 way tie in
popularity with small single figure %ages separating these
housemates.
The final and key ingredient that will determine the
eventual winner is vote transference between the remaining 5
housemates (sorry Kinga). Again, the "bestowed" fanbase
syndrome, massively evident from Maxwell’s departure and
benefiting Anthony by 15%, will come into play most
evidently when we witness either Derek or Makosi's exit. It
is largely inconceivable that many of these votes will be
bequeathed to Anthony, for the simple reason that they have
always been opposing factions in the house. Derek’s position
would be strengthened through association with Eugene and
Makosi would benefit most from Derek’s departure. Endemol
could have consolidated the 4 way tie this week (we must
wait and see the nominations), but one thing is certain,
given the unprecedented interference in the nomination
processes this year, Endemol’s strategy will be to deliver
the unexpected.
For Anthony fans to claim that their hero is home and hosed
in a landslide victory is a just a delusion too far.
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