Guide to Chester Conditions Stakes

Chester
Jul 10

2005 13/2 (Won), 8/1 which combined equates to 3/1
2004 15/8f, 200/1 which combined equates to 15/8
2003 4/1f, 7/1 which combined equates to 2/1
2002 6/4f, 9/1 (Won), 16/1, 100/1 which combined equates to 4/5
2001 5/1, 100/1 which combined equates to 9/2
2000 7/2f, 16/1 which combined equates to 5/2
1998 7/2 (Won)

In other words they have had runners with combined odds of 3/1, 15/8, 2/1, 4/5, 9/2, 5/2 and 7/2 in the seven years above having more than one runner in all but the first year.

The stats say if you beat 9/2 for his runners you are ahead of the game.
Taking 20/1 George Washington, 20/1 Horatio Nelson and 25/1 Ivan Denisovich 25/1 gives combined odds of 13/2. Without a Godolphin 2 yo presence do you feel lucky?

seem to remember Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio trading at around the same price on the day before this years race. Do you want to avoid the usual fascade leading up to the race in determining which will run and whether Fallon has chosen correctly and with the lack of information from the stable or take a price to beat the stats now (a couple of days ago) in the likelihood the best have run already.

Prefer George Washington who seems the Footsteps to Ivan Denisovichs Oratorio. The slow pace and strong early hold made him win far less impressively then he is probably capable of.

By the time you know which are running and also which mount Fallon takes you will be taking very short odds. You need to decide at which point to go in to get an edge on the stats odds. I could take another 20/1 chance,say Aussie Rules and still equal the best stats on the day in the last 8 years or so. The bookies will shorten them all to around 10s close to the day unless there is no strong opposition in which case there could be a couple in single figures well before the race. I think this will be the case as the team looks very strong this year and there hasnt been a Dubawi out nor is there likely to be from Godolphin. Take that into account and I reckon the lower stats like 2/1 could be apparent on O'Briens on the day.

I am happy with the bet having watched them shorten since, you will need to guess the right one on the day or take a shorter team price the longer you wait but with the safety net of a late comer. Good luck.