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Cheltenham & Gloucester Trophy Semi-Finals
I find that the best way to guage the unfolding action, is
to go to the web page of a spread firm and see what they
quote total runs for the team batting at the moment.
Aus runs 375-390. That is another 165 or so, putting Eng to
get 125 odd.
The advantage of using the spread is that it contains all
the relevant batting stats and feedback in the form of buy
and sell orders from their customers.
This is statistically the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. We all know
that it can turn out to be more or it can turn out to be
less. That is the nature of stats. But it is a good starting
point.
So the most likely outcome at this stage is an England win
on Sunday.
To say: "Oh, we will have to chase 250", is statistically
possible, but not the most likely scenario.
If however we DO have to chase 250, Aus need to get 290
more, bringing the draw back into play. very sensible
analysis,but there is no way a draw would be 50 if aussie
gets to 460. They are not going to be very aggressive today,
and a score of 460 would mean they have batted until
tea...anyway the crucial point is the likelihood of rain, as
always...
Think about it this way, england is now 1.45 to win the
match, and the spread quote is 375-390, if you think they
will be 1.4 even if aussie got to 460, then really 1.45 is a
huge price, so i think the possibility of rain must have
come into the equationIf aussies do manage a decent lead it
will require a hefty contribution from adam gilchrist which
means runs will be scored at a rapid rate. Even if they bat
at a run rate of 3.31 like they did yesterday in their 2nd
innings there will be plenty of time left in this match for
a result. Only the weather could bring about a draw.
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