With three underdogs winning last weekend, it just goes to show that anyone can win once they get to the playoffs. Like the basketball post-season, home advantage is less of a factor, with the emphasis on surviving and advancing. The 8-8 team stands just as much chance to win as the 12-4 team, as we've seen. So, does that mean we can expect more upsets this weekend? Well, all four games are rematches of games played earlier this season. The home teams won all four of those games, which is one reason why those teams all are home again for the rematch. However, much as happened since those opening games, and a victory for any one of the road teams this weekend must not be seen as an upset.
NY Jets @ PIT Steelers Sa Jan 15 - 4:30 pm EST (CBS)/21:30 GMT
The number one seeds have already beaten the Jets this season in Week 14. The Steelers won by 11 points on that occasion, and are our 9-point favorites to repeat the dose on Saturday. That was only a month ago, and the Jets have since boosted their confidence by beating San Diego in overtime. However, this was their second consecutive gruelling overtime game, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see their defence wear down fairly quickly against the Steelers bruising running game, and a useful passing attack. What's more, Pittsburgh are unbeaten in 14 games, and have had a week off to rest and prepare. The Jets never have won in Pittsburgh, and with the long range weather forecast predicting freezing temperatures and snow, I expect Pittsburgh to win this game with something to spare.
Pick: Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ 10/11.
STL Rams @ ATL Falcons Sa Jan 15 - 8:00 pm EST (FOX)/Jan 16 - 01:00 GMT
The Falcons took their Week 2 meeting by a comfortable 17 points, but only after being level at 17-17 after three quarters, before pulling clear. They are our 6.5 point favorites this weekend. Since then, the Falcons have cruised to the NFC No.2 seed (thanks to an easy schedule), but have lost their last two games. The Rams played their way into the post season by capturing their final two games, and are improving on defence; however, it is on offence where the Rams have made major strides in recent weeks. QB Marc Bulger is capable of picking apart a suspect Atlanta secondary, provided he is afforded sufficient protection. Against Seattle he hung on to the ball long enough to throw two TD passes. While I don't expect the Rams to progress, a 6.5 point handicap might just be beyond Atlanta.
Pick: St Louis (+7.0) @ 5/6.
MIN Vikings @ PHL Eagles Su Jan 16 - 1:00 pm EST (FOX)/18:00 GMT
Week Two also saw The Eagles victorious over their weekend opponents (27-16). Philly led 10-6 at half-time, before a fumble at the goal-line by Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper turned the game. Philly are massive 9-point favorites this weekend. Both teams have faltered on the run-in to the playoffs, although the Vikings are coming off an impressive win in Green Bay, preserving their two TD lead in the second half to stay 20 points ahead of the handicapper. Philly are still without star-receiver Terrell Owens who scored a 45-yard TD in that first game, but he can't be the only reason they went 13-3 this season. Without him they went 12-4 last season, and still have two of the league's most versatile offensive talents in Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Their veteran team will be well rested, and well prepared, and are likely to make fewer mistakes than the Vikings.
Pick: Philadelphia (-9.0) @ 20/21.
IND Colts @ NE Patriots Su Jan 16 - 4:30 pm EST (CBS)/21:30 GMT
The first game of the season saw the Colts denied overtime when Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal in the dying seconds of the game. New England won 27-24 that day and, despite being hit by defensive injuries, have lost only two games all season. Indianapolis won three of their five outdoor games afterwards, in what has been a record breaking season for their QB Peyton Manning - 49 touchdown passes and a 121.1 passer rating to earn his second straight MVP award. Manning committed the costly mistake of taking the sack that forced Vanderjagt to have to make a more difficult kick, and he will be hoping that it doesn't end the same way (has a 2-9 record against New England). The difference this time is the fact that the Patriots will be without top cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, which could give Indy even greater offensive success this week. With the weather forecast set fair, this may be the time for Manning to finally beat the Patriots.
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