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NFL Playoffs
With three underdogs winning last weekend, it just goes to
show that anyone can win once they get to the playoffs. Like
the basketball post-season, home advantage is less of a factor,
with the emphasis on surviving and advancing. The 8-8 team
stands just as much chance to win as the 12-4 team, as we've
seen. So, does that mean we can expect more upsets this weekend?
Well, all four games are rematches of games played earlier
this season. The home teams won all four of those games, which
is one reason why those teams all are home again for the rematch.
However, much as happened since those opening games, and a
victory for any one of the road teams this weekend must not
be seen as an upset.
NY Jets @ PIT Steelers Sa Jan 15 - 4:30 pm EST (CBS)/21:30
GMT
The number one seeds have already beaten the Jets this season
in Week 14. The Steelers won by 11 points on that occasion,
and are our 9-point favorites to repeat the dose on Saturday.
That was only a month ago, and the Jets have since boosted
their confidence by beating San Diego in overtime. However,
this was their second consecutive gruelling overtime game,
and it wouldn't be a surprise to see their defence wear down
fairly quickly against the Steelers bruising running game,
and a useful passing attack. What's more, Pittsburgh are unbeaten
in 14 games, and have had a week off to rest and prepare.
The Jets never have won in Pittsburgh, and with the long range
weather forecast predicting freezing temperatures and snow,
I expect Pittsburgh to win this game with something to spare.
Pick: Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ 10/11.
STL Rams @ ATL Falcons Sa Jan 15 - 8:00 pm EST (FOX)/Jan
16 - 01:00 GMT
The Falcons took their Week 2 meeting by a comfortable 17
points, but only after being level at 17-17 after three quarters,
before pulling clear. They are our 6.5 point favorites this
weekend. Since then, the Falcons have cruised to the NFC No.2
seed (thanks to an easy schedule), but have lost their last
two games. The Rams played their way into the post season
by capturing their final two games, and are improving on defence;
however, it is on offence where the Rams have made major strides
in recent weeks. QB Marc Bulger is capable of picking apart
a suspect Atlanta secondary, provided he is afforded sufficient
protection. Against Seattle he hung on to the ball long enough
to throw two TD passes. While I don't expect the Rams to progress,
a 6.5 point handicap might just be beyond Atlanta.
Pick: St Louis (+7.0) @ 5/6.
MIN Vikings @ PHL Eagles Su Jan 16 - 1:00 pm EST
(FOX)/18:00 GMT
Week Two also saw The Eagles victorious over their weekend
opponents (27-16). Philly led 10-6 at half-time, before a
fumble at the goal-line by Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper turned
the game. Philly are massive 9-point favorites this weekend.
Both teams have faltered on the run-in to the playoffs, although
the Vikings are coming off an impressive win in Green Bay,
preserving their two TD lead in the second half to stay 20
points ahead of the handicapper. Philly are still without
star-receiver Terrell Owens who scored a 45-yard TD in that
first game, but he can't be the only reason they went 13-3
this season. Without him they went 12-4 last season, and still
have two of the league's most versatile offensive talents
in Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Their veteran team
will be well rested, and well prepared, and are likely to
make fewer mistakes than the Vikings.
Pick: Philadelphia (-9.0) @ 20/21.
IND Colts @ NE Patriots Su Jan 16 - 4:30 pm EST (CBS)/21:30
GMT
The first game of the season saw the Colts denied overtime
when Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal in the dying seconds
of the game. New England won 27-24 that day and, despite being
hit by defensive injuries, have lost only two games all season.
Indianapolis won three of their five outdoor games afterwards,
in what has been a record breaking season for their QB Peyton
Manning - 49 touchdown passes and a 121.1 passer rating to
earn his second straight MVP award. Manning committed the
costly mistake of taking the sack that forced Vanderjagt to
have to make a more difficult kick, and he will be hoping
that it doesn't end the same way (has a 2-9 record against
New England). The difference this time is the fact that the
Patriots will be without top cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone
Poole, which could give Indy even greater offensive success
this week. With the weather forecast set fair, this may be
the time for Manning to finally beat the Patriots.
Pick: Indianapolis (+2.0) @ 20/23.
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