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bet365 Old Newton Cup (1m3f), 15.15 Haydock
Sa Jul 3
Last year he capitalised on Fallon's various misfortunes.
This season, he doesn't have Fallon to beat, but there's
still plenty of competition. What's worrying is that, of the
20 or so jockeys ahead of him in the table right now, every
one has had more rides than Frankie. He makes it to fewer
all-weather and night-racing meeting than his rivals and
this trend will surely as Goldolphin dispatch him around the
world more often. This wouldn't be a problem is his strike
rate was huge, but, in fact, it's currently 3% lower than
Callan's, who's ridden my horses than anyone.
I'd also
question whether Frankie's heart is really in winning
another Chamionship. When they change the rules and base it
on prizemoney rather than winners, he'll be a real contender
again, but until then he's a curious favourite, imo.
Maybe it's partly to do with the lack of clear opposition.
Spencer has emerged as a solid second favourite and it's not
hard to see why. He's already ridden twice as many winners
as Frankie. Beyond that, Sanders and Holland are
possibilities, but neither have had a rip-roaring start to
the campaign.
I've backed several jocks at 1,000-1,
including Darley, Murtagh, Ahern and Kelly. You may laugh,
but it would only take an injury or suspension for a couple
of the market leaders to through this event wide open.
There's also surprising value around on jockeys who've
already passed the 40-mark and are picking up enough rides
to stay in contention, namely Winston, Quinn and Hughes.
Therefore, the reason why Frankie's trading around evens and
lower is beyond me (I've already laid at 1.7 - 1.8, btw).
Sure, he's good for racing, but he's not riding at his very
best and it's questionable whether he's got the appetite for
another long summer's battle ahead. My view is look
elsewhere, but I'd be interested to hear counter-arguments
from any of his followers.
Ten winners for one of the other jocks might be a bit of
an exaggeration, and I take the point about six days' racing
not making a huge difference to the championship, but if
Frankie is to win, he'll need to either:
1. take more rides;
2. increase his strike rate.
I can't really seeing him doing either, and the Betfair
market doesn't reflect the openness of the competition, in
my view. I've been able to back jockeys like Darley, Murtagh
and Ahern at 1,000-1 and, though I accept they have no more
than a tiny chance of winning, it is surely premature to for
such requests to be matched.
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