In attempting to make a case for England retaining the
World Cup be warned: it wont be easy.
Watching England's struggles in recent times has been as
mawkish as watching a train wreck.
Yet a case can be made for Brian Ashton's struggling for
confidence outfit. Eight or nine players from the 2003
remain and the dads army of the tournament are almost
certain to go through to the quarter finals from Pool A,
along with South Africa.
Just how far experience and reliance on their dominant
forwards will take them after that is arguable. Casting
aside the sky is falling hysteria, the bottom line is this:
should England contrive to win three big matches, they will
be champions again. Being realistic, anything more than a
semi final spot for Ashtons battle weary troops will be a
major surprise.
Never in the history of any world cup competition has a side
started such a hot favourite than New Zealand.
From one through to fifteen they possess power, strength and
(the real killer) pace.
They consistantly play at a higher level. Until recently
losing to Australia (why on earth would the wallabies want
to give them a wake up call?), South Africa are the only
other side to have beaten them in the last two years.
To
illustrate the gulf in class, Pool C rivals Scotland,
despite a recent inspiring victory over Ireland at
Murrayfield,
have intimated that they will field a weakened side against
the All Blacks, in readiness for a likely quarter final
against Italy.
The Springboks look the most likely to cause an upset. They
have a few a few nasty, scrap iron players who are capable
of being extremely physical.
Ireland, having beaten England on three successive
occasions, should lead the Northern Hemisphere fight, and
while France will gain confidence from their recent friendly
success over England and of course the partisan crowd, it
must be remembered that hosts have won just two of the last
five world cups.
As for Wales, the arrival of Llanelli legend Gareth Jenkins
has not had the desired effect and the Welsh are currently
in turmoil, with Gavin Henson and Brent Cockbain omitted
from the squad. If the Welsh had not defeated England at
home in last seasons six nations, then I feel that Jenkins
would have been given the boot. Since then, their form has
been completely uninspiring, with a world record defeat
against England in the warm up games.
They look miles away from the form of of 2003 where they
dazzled the tournament, and took the All Blacks all the way.
Whichever way you look at it though, taking on New Zealand will
require a leap of faith.
Selections:
Pool D Winner - Ireland @ 2/1
Top France Tryscorer - Auerelien Rougerie @ 6/1
To
illustrate the gulf in class, Pool C rivals Scotland,
despite a recent inspiring victory over Ireland at
Murrayfield,
have intimated that they will field a weakened side against
the All Blacks, in readiness for a likely quarter final
against Italy.