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Available Free bets on Totesport Classic Chase
totesport Classic Chase, Warwick
Sa Jan 15 - Channel 4 race
Hardy Eustace
Heads the market on merit; the only concerns about him are
sore shins, and whether something will improve past him.
Three successive championship victories at the festival say
it all but, rising 9 and stated to not be returning until
the New Year, it's hard to see any value at current odds.
Others will have staked their claims before he sees a
racecourse again, and a small drift is more than likely.
Harchibald
I'm not in either the "can't win" or "can't lose"
categories, but, on balance, I don't think he will.
Enigmatic and charismatic, but his Punchestown defeat made
me question whether others now have his measure. Will pick
off tired rivals at his leisure, but those that have enough
left to counter-attack will embarass him again.
Brave Inca
The decision to remain over hurdles seems spot on. With a
new jockey, Inca showed how good he can be, with his jumping
noticeably better than before under McCoy. Very much in the
Hardy Eustace mould, but more than likely to improve the two
necks required to beat that rival, being a year younger, and
likely to be piloted by a top-notcher, rather than a
journeyman. Expect to see him winning in Ireland this
winter, as Hardy rests and Harchibald presumably comes to
England for better ground, and shortening in price as the
season progresses. Bomb-proof, and the highly likely winner.
Arcalis
Achieved little in winning the Supreme Novices, though did
it well. The rest of his form is nothing like as good and,
even though likely to get his favoured ground again, does
not appeal at all as a Champion Hurdler.
Faasel
Has it all to find with Mephisto, to improve the 17lbs he
was receiving from that horse at Kelso and, while you would
expect him to be a better horse this year, so few juvenile
hurdlers do find the progression that weight for age
anticipates. Questionable also if Cheltenham suits him
ideally. Wouldn't anticipate him becoming the first 5 year
old in years to win the race.
Mac's Joy
Developed into top-notcher last season and, for my money,
was not at his best in his last 3 races, having endured a
tough campaign. Goes on any ground and has that touch of
class. Did not travel or jump at his best in last year's
Champion, but was still only beaten 5 lengths. Could well
improve again and, if trained for this year's race, as
opposed to the chasing campaign that has been mooted, could
well be crossing swords all winter with Brave Inca, and
could even better him.
Penzance
Belied his stable's fears that he might be too soft for
Cheltenham with a wonderful win. Clearly transformed by
hurdles but not outstanding enough to warrant serious
attention. Does not seem to have the physical scope to make
significant improvement.
Back in Front
Predictably outpaced in this year's renewal. Will no longer
be a force in top 2 mile hurdles.
Mephisto
Tremendous win to run ratio, on the flat and over hurdles.
Hugely promising, and the owner is considering trying him
over 2 miles (his Kelso win was over 2m2f). Could easily
make up into a top contender - the cupboard is fairly bare
this side of the water - and the main doubts concern the
various problems that he has. Stable already talking in
terms of a selective campaign, but would not rule him out as
a contender.
Al Eile
Recent drift in the market suggests problems, and even best
form suggests he has a lot to find and will probably do so
only over a longer distance.
Essex
Still a dark horse, as his Champion run, and subsequent
non-appearance, suggests he may not have been right in the
race. Hard to recommend, but there are worse prices
available.
United
Apparently suffered a set-back - out until the New Year -
and that, coupled with age, lack of experience and the fact
that he is still far from proven, make him easy to ignore.
His Punchestown win was against out of sorts horses.
Lingo
For traders, a bandwagon could well develop if the stable
starts to puff about this one, but there is little in the
book to recommend him, and he has missed a season.
No Refuge
Odd to see some money for him, given that there has been no
suggestion that he might revert to 2 miles. (Although some
would point out that Hardy Eustace was heading for the
Stayers' a week before his first Champion Hurdle!). Can't
see him being good enough, anyway.
Akilak
Looked a monster on his debut, but not so much subsequently.
If he progresses, could be of interest in the unlikely event
of a soft-ground Champion.
Intersky Falcon
Not beyond the realms of fantasy that he could, again, win
good races beforehand, and his run this year was
outstanding, given stable problems, but has never appealed
as a potential Champion.
Mighty Man
Fascinating horse, and it would be good to see him progress.
With so little experience, and with a temperament verging on
the hyper, any prediction at this point would be highly
speculative.
Conclusion: Mephisto could be the one to challenge the Irish
domination but, otherwise, the overseas stranglehold is
likely to continue. This may well be the season when Hardy
is toppled by either Brave Inca or Mac's Joy.
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